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Ruto-ODM Alliance: Impact on Luo Nyanza and Kenya’s Future

William Ruto’s connection with Raila Odinga dates back to 2007 when they were both prominent figures in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). As a key supporter of Raila’s presidential campaign during the fiercely contested 2007 elections, Ruto played an influential role within ODM. Although Raila ultimately did not secure the presidency, this political alliance was pivotal for Ruto, enhancing his influence in Rift Valley politics.

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The integration of ODM members into the government must be understood within the context of rising tensions between President Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Once instrumental in securing the Mt. Kenya vote for Ruto in the 2022 elections, Gachagua has emerged as a polarizing figure, frequently clashing with fellow members of the Kenya Kwanza coalition and creating discord within the administration.

:Ruto’s Strategic ODM Alliance: What Luo-Kalenjin Unity and Gachagua’s Impeachment Could Mean for Kenya’s 2027 Elections

By Charles Wachira

In a move that sent shockwaves through Kenya’s political landscape, on July 24, 2024, President William Ruto nominated four senior-ranking members of the opposition ODM party into his new broad-based government. This decision, unprecedented in recent history, raised questions about its impact on the ODM political base in Luo Nyanza and the broader implications for Kenya’s political future, particularly considering Ruto’s pledge to nominate a female deputy president and the brewing tensions with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The history between Ruto and Raila Odinga, leader of the ODM party, is a long and complex one. The two men, who had once been political allies, found themselves on opposite sides during the 2022 general elections. Ruto, a formidable opponent of Raila, ran against him on a populist platform that promised economic transformation under the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. Raila, backed by the then-incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, represented the Azimio la Umoja coalition, advocating for continuity in governance and reforms aimed at social inclusion.

The Ruto-Raila Political History: From Allies to Rivals

William Ruto’s relationship with Raila Odinga goes back to 2007 when both were part of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Ruto, a key player in ODM, supported Raila’s presidential bid in the highly contested 2007 elections. Although Raila did not win, the political partnership marked a high point for Ruto’s career, solidifying his influence in Rift Valley politics.

However, the alliance began to crack after the 2010 constitutional referendum, when Ruto broke away from Raila over disagreements regarding the new constitution’s provisions. The split widened, and by 2013, Ruto had formed an alliance with Uhuru Kenyatta, effectively leaving Raila’s political camp. This partnership with Kenyatta paved the way for Ruto to become Kenya’s deputy president. Raila, on the other hand, remained a key opposition figure, criticizing the government’s policies and vying for the presidency in the 2013 and 2017 elections.

The 2022 election further deepened the rivalry between the two. Raila was favored by Kenyatta, while Ruto, now running independently, positioned himself as the “hustlers’ candidate,” championing the cause of ordinary Kenyans. Ruto’s victory in the 2022 polls, despite Raila’s strong challenge, solidified his political base but also intensified the animosity between the two camps.

The ODM Move: What’s in it for Luo Nyanza?

The decision to incorporate ODM leaders into the Ruto administration represents a political gamble for both sides. For Ruto, the move appears to be a calculated attempt to co-opt opposition forces, thereby reducing the pressure from Raila’s ODM, which commands significant support in Luo Nyanza. By including opposition figures in his government, Ruto not only blurs the lines between the ruling party and opposition but also fractures the opposition’s ability to mount a cohesive challenge in future elections.

For ODM, agreeing to join the Kenya Kwanza administration is an equally strategic move, likely driven by pragmatism. Raila Odinga, despite losing the 2022 elections, continues to be a towering figure in Luo Nyanza politics. However, the opposition has found itself increasingly sidelined, with limited influence over national policy. By allowing some of his party members to be incorporated into Ruto’s government, Raila likely aims to maintain a foothold in national politics and secure resources and influence for his region.

Luo Nyanza has long been the bedrock of opposition politics, and ODM’s move risks alienating its core supporters. However, Raila may be betting that the benefits of being part of the government, in terms of regional development and political influence, outweigh the potential backlash from his traditional support base. The integration of ODM into the Kenya Kwanza government also weakens any potential opposition unity that could challenge Ruto in 2027.

Ruto’s Broader Strategy: Is Gachagua’s Future in Doubt?

The inclusion of ODM members into the government cannot be viewed in isolation. It comes at a time when President Ruto’s relationship with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has been under increasing strain. Gachagua, a key player in securing the Mt. Kenya vote for Ruto in 2022, has been a vocal and controversial figure, often clashing with other members of the Kenya Kwanza coalition and causing friction within the administration.

On March 7, 2024, Ruto made a significant pronouncement, pledging that his party would have a female deputy president in the near future. This declaration was widely interpreted as a signal that Gachagua’s days as deputy president may be numbered. The timing of this announcement, combined with the inclusion of ODM figures, has led to speculation that Ruto is quietly positioning himself for a future without Gachagua.

With the impeachment motion against Gachagua looming, led by MPs such as Mwengi Mutuse, Ruto’s recent moves could be seen as laying the groundwork for the deputy president’s removal. By building a broader coalition that includes ODM members, Ruto may be seeking to secure enough parliamentary support to push through Gachagua’s impeachment and install a new deputy—perhaps a female leader as he promised.

The Prospects of a Luo-Kalenjin Alliance

One of the most intriguing questions emerging from this political realignment is whether a Luo-Kalenjin alliance, facilitated by Ruto and Raila, could secure Ruto’s presidency in the 2027 elections. Historically, the two communities have been on opposite sides of Kenya’s political divide, but a rapprochement between Ruto and Raila could create a powerful electoral bloc.

Ruto’s Rift Valley base remains solid, and Raila’s influence in Luo Nyanza, despite the incorporation of ODM members into the government, is still formidable. A political alliance between the two could bring together these key voting blocs, creating a formidable force in Kenyan politics. However, such an alliance would come with significant risks. Ruto’s traditional supporters in Mt. Kenya, already uneasy about Gachagua’s sidelining, may view a partnership with Raila with suspicion, potentially fracturing the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Broader Implications for Kenya’s Political Future

The alliance between Ruto and ODM members reflects the fluidity and pragmatism of Kenyan politics, where alliances shift quickly based on political necessity. For Ruto, the move offers a way to consolidate power, weaken the opposition, and prepare for future leadership battles, including the potential removal of Gachagua.

However, the broader implications of this alliance go beyond the immediate political calculations. By incorporating opposition members, Ruto is setting a precedent for a more inclusive, albeit politically complex, style of governance. This could reshape Kenya’s political landscape, moving away from the traditional adversarial relationship between government and opposition and toward a more collaborative, though fragile, arrangement.

Yet, the risks remain high. If the alliance fails to deliver tangible benefits for Luo Nyanza, Raila’s base could revolt, leaving ODM in a weakened position. For Ruto, the gamble lies in whether he can balance the competing interests of his coalition while preparing for the future—one that may include a new deputy president and a shifting alliance with the opposition.

As the political drama unfolds, one thing is clear: the next few years will be critical in determining the future of Kenya’s leadership. Whether through reconciliation or rupture, the Ruto-Gachagua alliance, coupled with the inclusion of ODM figures, will play a decisive role in shaping the country’s political trajectory leading up to the 2027 elections.

Keywords:Ruto-Gachagua alliance:ODM inclusion 2024:Luo-Kalenjin political alliance:Deputy president impeachment:Kenya 2027 elections

Charles Wachira, Managing Editor of businessworld, has disproportionately worked as a foreign correspondent in Nairobi, Kenya. Formerly an East Africa correspondent with bloomberg, covering the business beat he has since been published by a legion of other authoritative global news platforms including Global Finance Magazine, Toward Freedom, Earth Island Journal, and Dialogue. earth and so on. He is also a co-author of, Success to Significance, a biography of pre-eminent global industrialist and renowned philanthropist Dr. Manu Chandaraia. He’s an alumnus of the University of Nairobi and Nairobi School.

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Politics

Ugandans Detained for Insulting Museveni on TikTok

Magistrate Stella Maris Amabilis ordered the detention of two suspects until November 13, 2024, on charges of hate speech and spreading malicious information about the first family and NRM-linked musicians. The pair, who denied the charges, are co-defendants with 19-year-old Julius Tayebwa, already remanded for the same offences. Prosecutors say they posted TikTok content to incite hostility against the first family and government figures.

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Museveni Kaguta
Human rights groups have long criticized Uganda's crackdown on online speech, with the US State Department’s 2023 report accusing the government of using criminal penalties to curb internet freedom. This arrest follows the 2022 case of author Kakwenza Rukirabashaija, charged with offensive communication after criticizing the president and his son.

: Two Ugandans face charges of hate speech after insulting President Museveni, Museveni first wife Lady Janet, and Gen. Muhoozi on TikTok, amid rising concerns over free speech.

Two Ugandans, 21-year-old David Ssengozi, alias Lucky Choice, and 28-year-old Isaiah Ssekagiri, have been remanded in Kigo prison for allegedly insulting President Museveni Kaguta, First Lady Janet Museveni, and their son Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba on TikTok.

Ugandans Remanded Over Alleged Insults to First Family on TikTok

Magistrate Stella Maris Amabilis ordered their detention until November 13, 2024, when their case will be heard.

 The two are charged with hate speech and spreading malicious information about the first family and musicians linked to the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

The pair, who appeared in court on Monday, denied the charges. They are co-defendants with 19-year-old Julius Tayebwa, who has already been remanded for the same offences.

 Prosecutors allege that the trio posted content on TikTok intended to “degrade, demean, and promote hostility” against the first family and government-aligned figures.

Government Faces Criticism for Crackdown on Online Free Speech

This arrest follows a September warning by police spokesperson Rusoke Kituuma, who stated that insulting the president, the “fountain of honour,” is a criminal offence. 

Kituuma specifically mentioned Lucky Choice as a subject of ongoing investigations. The content leading to the arrests is not entirely clear, but a TikTok video released in April titled “My First Enemies” is believed to have used explicit language to criticize the first family.

The case comes amid increasing concerns over Uganda’s crackdown on freedom of expression.

 In July, a 24-year-old man was sentenced to six years in prison for similar charges after insulting the president on TikTok.

 Human rights organisations have long criticised the Ugandan government for restricting online speech, with the US State Department’s 2023 report accusing Uganda of using criminal penalties to stifle internet freedom.

The arrest also follows the 2022 case of Kakwenza Rukirabashaija, an award-winning Ugandan author who was charged with offensive communication after posting critical remarks about the president and his son.

 Rukirabashaija fled Uganda for Germany after enduring alleged torture during his month-long detention. Rights groups continue to condemn the government’s actions against free speech and the media.

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Somaliland’s Election: A Key Moment for Democracy & Independence

The election sees President Muse Bihi Abdi’s ruling Kulmiye party facing Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi’s opposition Waddani party. Kulmiye touts milestones in Somaliland’s recognition efforts, including ties with Taiwan, while Waddani aims to expand diplomacy across Africa and the Global South. Waddani’s coalition with the KAAH association signals a focus on regional inclusion, especially in Somaliland’s eastern areas affected by unrest.

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Despite the election's significance, risks remain as the Isaaq clan's dominance could heighten minority grievances. Waddani’s inclusivity promise may ease tensions, yet possible fraud claims and Isaaq loyalist unrest pose challenges. Stability hinges on transparency and reconciliation after 2022's postponed elections.

: Explore Somaliland’s 2024 election and its impact on democracy, regional stability, and the push for global recognition as an independent state.

                             Election Context and Significance
Somaliland is set to hold a presidential election on November 13, 2024, an event with substantial implications. The election’s results will shape Somaliland’s democratic credibility and impact its longstanding push for formal recognition as an independent state. Thirty-three years after declaring independence from the Somali Union, Somaliland remains unrecognised, struggling with limited access to global financing and aid, which must often come via Mogadishu.

                             Pursuit of Recognition
Somaliland’s determination for independence was underscored in January 2024 when it reached an agreement with Ethiopia, proposing Ethiopia’s access to the sea in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. This pending agreement stirred regional responses, including protests from Somalia, highlighting the sensitivities around Somaliland’s political status.

                            Political Landscape: Kulmiye vs. Waddani
The election pits the ruling Kulmiye party, led by President Muse Bihi Abdi, against the opposition party, Waddani, led by Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi. While Kulmiye has championed milestones in Somaliland’s push for recognition, such as building diplomatic ties with Taiwan and lobbying Western states, Waddani is likely to broaden diplomatic efforts toward African and Global South nations. A recent coalition between Waddani and the KAAH association highlights its focus on regional inclusion, particularly in Somaliland’s eastern regions that have faced unrest.

                                 Regional Implications
A peaceful election would bolster Somaliland’s image as a stable democratic entity and strengthen its case for independence. However, Somaliland’s independence push could escalate regional tensions, as Ethiopia and Somaliland grow wary of Somalia’s alliance with Egypt. While a military confrontation with Mogadishu is unlikely, Somaliland remains sensitive to Somalia’s “one Somalia” policy, which has global backing.

                                 Risks of Instability
Despite the election’s importance, risks persist. The dominance of the Isaaq clan in politics and economics could exacerbate grievances among minority clans, even as Waddani promises greater inclusivity. Additionally, tensions among Isaaq loyalists and potential accusations of electoral fraud could lead to unrest. After the violent postponement of elections in 2022, transparency and clan reconciliation will be essential to maintaining stability.

                         A Step Forward for Somaliland
While risks remain, Somaliland’s return to the polls is a positive step for its democratic journey and quest for international recognition. Regardless of the election’s outcome, the event signals continued resilience in Somaliland’s push for independence.

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Salva Kiir: Independence Hero to Divisive South Sudan Leader

President Salva Kiir has struggled to develop South Sudan’s oil-reliant economy, with oil revenues making up nearly 98% of the national budget. Despite the Petroleum Management Act of 2011, he has faced allegations of diverting oil income, fueling corruption at multiple government levels and hindering national progress.

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President Salva Kiir has faced allegations of using political and economic power to maintain control, deepening divisions among opposition groups and stifling civil society. Critics say his approach, coupled with alleged corruption, has stalled South Sudan’s progress and left a leadership vacuum for meaningful change.

: South Sudan’s Salva Kiir led the nation to independence but later faced criticism for fostering division, violence, and corruption amid ongoing civil strife
By Steven C. Roach

Salva Kiir: From Independence Hero to Controversial Leader
Salva Kiir Mayardit has served as South Sudan’s president since the country gained independence in 2011, following a long and bloody civil war with Sudan. Initially, his leadership was marked by optimism, but within two years, this hope unravelled. A rift between Kiir and his vice president, Riek Machar, plunged the country into civil war, displacing four million people and causing an estimated 388,000 deaths.

                         Civil War and Postponed Elections
The division between Kiir and Machar resulted in violent conflict, and despite attempts to restore peace, the two sides remained at odds. In 2015, unable to reach an agreement, the government postponed elections indefinitely as civil strife continued. A fragile peace agreement was signed in September 2018, which aimed to establish a transitional government and set a roadmap for peace. However, while Machar was reinstated as vice president, much of the agreement remains unimplemented, and little progress has been made toward stability.

                              Repeated Election Delays: 2026 Awaits
Since 2018, elections have been postponed four times, with the government citing a lack of preparedness each time. Most recently, the elections initially scheduled for 2023 were pushed to 2024, then delayed again to 2026. Some critics argue these delays reflect Kiir’s fears of losing power and facing possible prosecution in a yet-to-be-formed war crimes court. His political manoeuvres have effectively divided the opposition and stifled civil society groups pressing for democratic reform.

                           Power Struggles and Alleged Corruption
Throughout his presidency, Kiir has faced allegations of leveraging both political and economic power to remain in control. He has been accused of dividing groups like the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance while repressing civil society. This divisive approach, combined with alleged widespread corruption, has hindered progress, leaving the country without viable political leaders ready to inspire change.

                                  Early Life and Rise to Leadership
Born in 1951, Kiir grew up in a Dinka family in Warrap State and joined the Anyanya, a South Sudanese rebel movement, at 16. In 1983, he joined the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) under John Garang, ultimately succeeding Garang as president of Southern Sudan following his death in 2005. Kiir won the 2010 elections, consolidating control of the political system and paving the way for the 2011 independence referendum, which resulted in South Sudan’s secession.

                    Ethnic Tensions and Military Patronage
As president, Kiir faced the difficult task of unifying and professionalising the army. However, ongoing political infighting had already led some commanders to defect and form their militias. Kiir managed to bring back several of these commanders with cash and official appointments, yet the army remained fractured along ethnic lines. Patronage became a tool for maintaining loyalty, particularly among his Dinka soldiers, instead of dissolving these networks and building a professional military.

                        Economic Dependency and Missteps
One of Kiir’s greatest challenges has been developing South Sudan’s economy, which depends heavily on oil revenues, accounting for nearly 98% of the national budget. Despite the Petroleum Management Act of 2011, which aimed to manage resources responsibly, Kiir allegedly siphoned off significant oil revenue. This practice fueled corruption at both state and local levels, as government figures sought personal gains over national development.

                      Inflation and Civil War erupted again in 2013
In 2012, a dispute over oil transport fees led to the temporary shutdown of oil pipelines to Sudan, which sparked a severe economic crisis. Inflation and interest rates surged, adding to tensions and sparking renewed conflict in 2013. This time, the fighting was between government forces and the newly formed Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM-IO), exacerbating South Sudan’s political and social turmoil.

                     A Legacy of Division and Conflict
Kiir’s presidency, which once symbolised South Sudan’s hope for unity and independence, has become synonymous with division, delayed progress, and corruption. His tactics have deepened ethnic divides and crippled the nation’s economy. Kiir’s future, and that of South Sudan, now hinges on whether he can transcend his reliance on patronage and authoritarian rule to usher in an era of genuine peace, stability, and democracy.

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