: How President Trump’s 2024 election win could influence trade, aid, and geopolitical dynamics in East Africa. Discover potential regional changes and effects.

On November 5, 2024, the United States confirmed Donald J. Trump’s win in the presidential election, making him the first U.S. president since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.  

His return to the White House has sparked questions across the globe, including in East Africa, where nations like Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia are anticipating shifts in U.S. foreign policy.

 From trade and investment to geopolitical rivalry, East Africa stands at a critical juncture with the potential return of Trump’s America-first policies.

Trade Relations: A Potential Shift in AGOA and Bilateral Agreements

 East Africa has long benefited from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade initiative launched in 2000 that allows African nations to export certain goods to the U.S. duty-free.

 During his first term, Trump questioned the effectiveness of such multilateral agreements, often prioritising bilateral arrangements. This stance, usually dubbed “America First,” sparked concerns among African nations.

“President Trump’s approach to trade agreements tends to favour stronger bilateral ties over broader multilateral agreements,” noted former trade advisor Robert Lighthizer in 2020.

With Trump’s return, experts are speculating whether he might alter AGOA’s structure or even let it expire in 2025.

East African nations like Kenya have previously engaged in direct discussions with the U.S. for individual trade deals. 

In July 2020, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta initiated negotiations with the Trump administration for a bilateral free trade agreement. Kenya’s current leaders may find Trump’s second term an opportune moment to push for a more solidified bilateral arrangement with the U.S. to secure market access.

Foreign Aid and Development Funding 

Foreign aid has been a vital source of support for many East African countries, particularly in sectors like health and infrastructure. 

The U.S. remains one of the largest aid contributors to Africa. However, Trump’s first administration proposed significant cuts to foreign aid.

 In 2018, for example, the administration suggested a 30% cut to the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) budgets, a move that was met with resistance in Congress.

During a 2017 White House press briefing, Trump stated, “We need to stop sending money overseas and focus on rebuilding our own country.”

Though the cuts were partially blocked by Congress, a similar agenda in Trump’s second term could create financial uncertainty for development projects across East Africa.

Programs like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has saved millions of lives in East Africa since its inception in 2003, may face renewed scrutiny under a cost-cutting administration. 

Experts warn that reduced funding could stall progress in combating diseases like HIV/AIDS and malaria, which remain critical public health concerns.

Military Cooperation: Counter-Terrorism Efforts in Somalia 

East Africa’s strategic location has made it a key partner in U.S. counter-terrorism efforts, particularly in Somalia, where the militant group Al-Shabaab remains active. 

The Trump administration made headlines in December 2020 by withdrawing approximately 700 U.S. troops from Somalia, emphasising the need to “bring our troops home.”

However, some of Trump’s advisors noted that he remains committed to securing U.S. interests abroad. “Our troops’ departure doesn’t mean we’re abandoning our interests in Africa,” stated former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in 2020.

If Trump continues to prioritize U.S. security interests through remote strategies,East African countries might find themselves bearing a larger burden in counter-terrorism.

 Somalia’s fragile government, along with neighbouring countries, may need to strengthen regional alliances and depend more on African-led security initiatives.

Geopolitical Influence: U.S.-China Rivalry in Africa 

During Trump’s previous term, his administration increased its rhetoric against China, frequently cautioning African leaders about “debt traps” in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

In a 2018 speech, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo remarked, “When China comes calling, it’s not always for the good of African nations.”

Trump’s approach to China raised concerns over Africa’s growing dependence on Chinese loans and investments.

Should Trump reengage with East Africa in his second term, we can expect his administration to push African nations toward alternative development partnerships.

Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia, which have welcomed significant Chinese infrastructure investments, might be encouraged to turn to American private investments as an alternative.

Trump’s administration launched the “Prosper Africa” initiative in 2019, aimed at increasing U.S.-Africa trade and investment.

This program may see renewed emphasis under Trump’s second term, especially if he focuses on expanding American influence in the region.

Environmental and Climate Policy Implications

 One key area where East Africa may see a divergence with Trump’s policies is climate action.

 His withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 concerned African leaders, given that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. Trump’s previous administration downplayed climate change, and his second term might similarly deprioritise green initiatives.

 For countries in East Africa facing droughts, rising temperatures, and desertification, reduced climate collaboration could pose serious risks.

As Kenyan climate activist Elizabeth Wathuti put it, “Climate change is an immediate and real threat for us. We need global action, not indifference.”

If Trump remains steadfast in downplaying climate action, East African nations may turn to the European Union and other allies for environmental partnerships.

Conclusion:

 As East Africa prepares for Trump’s return, leaders across the region are both cautious and optimistic about future U.S.-East Africa relations.

While trade and security partnerships may continue to flourish under Trump’s bilateral-focused approach, concerns over foreign aid cuts and climate inaction linger.

For East Africa, Trump’s second presidency presents both opportunities and challenges as the region navigates its path in an increasingly multipolar world.