Politics
Salva Kiir: Independence Hero to Divisive South Sudan Leader
President Salva Kiir has struggled to develop South Sudan’s oil-reliant economy, with oil revenues making up nearly 98% of the national budget. Despite the Petroleum Management Act of 2011, he has faced allegations of diverting oil income, fueling corruption at multiple government levels and hindering national progress.
: South Sudan’s Salva Kiir led the nation to independence but later faced criticism for fostering division, violence, and corruption amid ongoing civil strife
By Steven C. Roach
Salva Kiir: From Independence Hero to Controversial Leader
Salva Kiir Mayardit has served as South Sudan’s president since the country gained independence in 2011, following a long and bloody civil war with Sudan. Initially, his leadership was marked by optimism, but within two years, this hope unravelled. A rift between Kiir and his vice president, Riek Machar, plunged the country into civil war, displacing four million people and causing an estimated 388,000 deaths.
Civil War and Postponed Elections
The division between Kiir and Machar resulted in violent conflict, and despite attempts to restore peace, the two sides remained at odds. In 2015, unable to reach an agreement, the government postponed elections indefinitely as civil strife continued. A fragile peace agreement was signed in September 2018, which aimed to establish a transitional government and set a roadmap for peace. However, while Machar was reinstated as vice president, much of the agreement remains unimplemented, and little progress has been made toward stability.
Repeated Election Delays: 2026 Awaits
Since 2018, elections have been postponed four times, with the government citing a lack of preparedness each time. Most recently, the elections initially scheduled for 2023 were pushed to 2024, then delayed again to 2026. Some critics argue these delays reflect Kiir’s fears of losing power and facing possible prosecution in a yet-to-be-formed war crimes court. His political manoeuvres have effectively divided the opposition and stifled civil society groups pressing for democratic reform.
Power Struggles and Alleged Corruption
Throughout his presidency, Kiir has faced allegations of leveraging both political and economic power to remain in control. He has been accused of dividing groups like the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance while repressing civil society. This divisive approach, combined with alleged widespread corruption, has hindered progress, leaving the country without viable political leaders ready to inspire change.
Early Life and Rise to Leadership
Born in 1951, Kiir grew up in a Dinka family in Warrap State and joined the Anyanya, a South Sudanese rebel movement, at 16. In 1983, he joined the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) under John Garang, ultimately succeeding Garang as president of Southern Sudan following his death in 2005. Kiir won the 2010 elections, consolidating control of the political system and paving the way for the 2011 independence referendum, which resulted in South Sudan’s secession.
Ethnic Tensions and Military Patronage
As president, Kiir faced the difficult task of unifying and professionalising the army. However, ongoing political infighting had already led some commanders to defect and form their militias. Kiir managed to bring back several of these commanders with cash and official appointments, yet the army remained fractured along ethnic lines. Patronage became a tool for maintaining loyalty, particularly among his Dinka soldiers, instead of dissolving these networks and building a professional military.
Economic Dependency and Missteps
One of Kiir’s greatest challenges has been developing South Sudan’s economy, which depends heavily on oil revenues, accounting for nearly 98% of the national budget. Despite the Petroleum Management Act of 2011, which aimed to manage resources responsibly, Kiir allegedly siphoned off significant oil revenue. This practice fueled corruption at both state and local levels, as government figures sought personal gains over national development.
Inflation and Civil War erupted again in 2013
In 2012, a dispute over oil transport fees led to the temporary shutdown of oil pipelines to Sudan, which sparked a severe economic crisis. Inflation and interest rates surged, adding to tensions and sparking renewed conflict in 2013. This time, the fighting was between government forces and the newly formed Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM-IO), exacerbating South Sudan’s political and social turmoil.
A Legacy of Division and Conflict
Kiir’s presidency, which once symbolised South Sudan’s hope for unity and independence, has become synonymous with division, delayed progress, and corruption. His tactics have deepened ethnic divides and crippled the nation’s economy. Kiir’s future, and that of South Sudan, now hinges on whether he can transcend his reliance on patronage and authoritarian rule to usher in an era of genuine peace, stability, and democracy.
Politics
William Ruto’s First Year: Promises Made, Struggles Persist
President Ruto cannot fulfil his manifesto unless he curbs runaway corruption and holds culprits accountable. The rule of law requires recovering proceeds of crime and prosecuting offenders for economic sabotage. This strategy would reduce the need to overburden Kenyans with taxes and additional borrowing.
: Kenya’s President William Ruto faces challenges in fulfilling promises on governance, the economy, and national cohesion. Can he turn things around before 2027?
It’s more than a year since President William Ruto was sworn into office as Kenya’s fifth president.
He took office during a period of rising food and fuel prices, high unemployment, and a troubling debt burden in Kenya.
During the election campaign, Ruto promised to fix an economy afflicted by corruption and ineptitude. He promised to entrench good governance and place the poor at the centre of economic policy.
He pledged to address ethnicised politics and to uphold constitutionalism and the rule of law.
Ruto’s promises were significant. The rule of law and constitutionalism are key to economic planning and development, governance and equitable sharing of national resources.
They are the guardrails against impunity, democratic backsliding, lawlessness and political instability.
Throughout Kenya’s postcolonial period, the political elite have exploited ethnicity to obtain power at the expense of the collective well-being and social cohesion.
Elite entitlement has also weakened state institutions, leading to corruption and impunity.
I have studied democratic transitions, conflict and state building and elections in Africa.
My 2018 book examined how the political class had exploited ethnicity for political and economic advantage, resulting in weak and even dysfunctional state institutions in Kenya.
In his election campaign, Ruto identified the major issues that required urgent attention.
He addressed issues that needed swift action without constitutional changes, such as thawing the tension between the executive and the judiciary, decoupling the police finances from the executive, and taking port operations back to the coastal city of Mombasa from the inland town of Naivasha.
But resolving Kenya’s economic hardships has proved a hard nut to crack, as his 9 November 2023 State of the Nation address acknowledged. Just over a year since he was sworn in, Ruto is no nearer to turning the Kenyan ship around.
ECONOMIC TURBULENCE
As a candidate, Ruto portrayed himself as an outsider to Kenya’s power matrix who was best placed to improve the living conditions of the poor and excluded. But the economy has not improved under his watch. If anything, living conditions have worsened.
The cost of living is higher after a steep increase in the petrol price and the local currency’s loss of value. Ruto’s government has imposed new and increased taxes on Kenyans, ostensibly to reduce or remove the need for external borrowing.
The government was quick to remove fuel and food subsidies but has been slow to address government wastage.
The government’s key strategy was to subsidise fertiliser to boost harvests and achieve food security. It remains to be seen whether this will happen.
More deliberate measures are required to turn around agriculture as the mainstay of the economy.
On the question of centring the poor and marginalised in governance, Ruto focused on the financial sector. The government rolled out the “Hustler Fund” to make credit more affordable.
But the fund’s impact on overall living standards through job creation, for instance, is likely to be cancelled out by a punitive tax regime and a struggling economy.
RULE OF LAW
Ruto’s first public event as president was to approve the appointment of six judges left in limbo by his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta. He also made good on his promise to allocate more funding to the judiciary.
However, to entrench the rule of law and constitutionalism calls for more than this. Judicial officers must act with utmost integrity. To affirm equality before the law, errant senior state officers and the political elite must face the law and if found guilty sanctioned decisively.
The Kenyan judiciary is still bedevilled by corruption that impedes access to justice. Disturbingly, it is seen as more inclined to punish the poor while letting the rich and political elite act with impunity.
Ruto himself has obeyed court rulings that went against him, unlike under Kenyatta, when disregard for the law was the norm. Critics, however, including the Law Society of Kenya, have accused his administration of disobeying court orders like his predecessor.
Ruto spoke out against extrajudicial and summary executions and enforced disappearances perfected by the police over the years.
He sought to accord the police financial and operational autonomy. Thus he transferred accounting for the police budget to the police as he had promised.
Despite these changes, a culture of impunity and lack of transparency continues to undermine the Kenyan police. Extrajudicial executions continue. The police must be placed under civilian oversight as envisaged under the constitution.
The failure to set up a commission of inquiry into state capture under his predecessor, as promised during campaigns, dented Ruto’s commitment to the fight against corruption. A year later, a commission of inquiry has not been formed and the issue seems to have been abandoned altogether.
It is unlikely that Ruto will fulfil his manifesto unless he reins in runaway corruption and the culprits are held to account.
The rule of law demands that proceeds of crime be recovered and offenders charged for economic sabotage. This approach would obviate the need to burden Kenyans with taxes and more borrowing.
NATIONAL COHESION
Appointments to government positions have been undermined by the age-old problems of recycling appointees, patronage, nepotism and ethnicity. Just as worrying are senior government officials publicly advancing exclusionary ethnic politics with impunity. Ruto must rein them in.
It is also a setback that Ruto acceded to talks to assuage the opposition elite who had resorted to violent protests against his historic victory. These elitist self-serving talks could lead to constitutional amendments creating more political positions under a cynically flawed logic that this approach enhances national cohesion.
This is an about-turn on Ruto’s part.
Ultimately national cohesion is Ruto’s pressing challenge.
Kenya is divided on many fronts – economic, ethnic, regional and religious – a legacy of previous governments.
Ruto needs to look beyond ethno-regional appointments. For legitimacy and transformation, he needs to ideologically reconnect with and dignify the “hustler nation”, the disenfranchised constituency that propelled him into power. Bar this, he could face an intensely contested reelection bid like his predecessors.
Politics
Rigathi Gachagua’s Impeachment: A Political Conundrum for Ruto’s Administration
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment has transformed Kenya’s political landscape, marking the first event of its kind under the 2010 Constitution.
: Explore the political crisis after Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment, its impact on William Ruto’s leadership, and the road to Kenya’s 2027 elections.
The impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has upended Kenya’s political landscape, marking the first instance of such an event under the 2010 Constitution.
Accused of divisive politics and judicial interference, Gachagua’s ousting has ignited significant political tensions, particularly within the populous Mt. Kenya region, which has been a cornerstone of President William Ruto’s support base.
Gachagua has vocally criticised Ruto, describing his former ally as “vicious” and accusing him of orchestrating the impeachment.
In a fiery statement, Gachagua claimed, “The man I helped to become president has betrayed me,” while also alleging threats to his safety.
His impeachment has left the deputy presidency in limbo, with a court temporarily halting the appointment of Interior Minister Kithure Kindiki as his replacement.
Impact on Ruto’s Political Strategy
This political rift presents a dual challenge for Ruto. On one hand, it exposes cracks within the ruling coalition, with some legislators fearing backlash in their constituencies for supporting Gachagua’s removal.
On the other, it provides opposition leaders an opportunity to capitalise on perceived disunity within the government, potentially reshaping alliances as the 2027 elections approach.
Moreover, Gachagua’s removal has highlighted the volatile nature of Kenyan politics, where loyalty often shifts based on regional and ethnic dynamics.
Analysts believe Ruto must now tread carefully to maintain his hold over Mt. Kenya, a region critical to his electoral prospects.
The Way Forward
The administration must immediately stabilize governance by resolving the court dispute over Gachagua’s replacement or reconciling with dissenting factions.
Political analysts suggest that Ruto should focus on unifying his coalition and delivering tangible results to counter opposition narratives.
As Kenya moves closer to the 2027 polls, this episode underscores the importance of political cohesion and strategic messaging. Whether Ruto can overcome this challenge or face further fallout will significantly shape the country’s political trajectory.
Politics
Kenya Under Ruto: Transformative Leadership or Mounting Challenges?
Ruto’s policies have sparked mixed reactions on the social front. While he has taken a prominent role in addressing global challenges like climate change—evident in hosting a landmark summit that secured billions in clean energy investments—critics contend that his focus on international priorities has overshadowed pressing domestic concerns. Issues such as food insecurity and unemployment remain unresolved, leaving many Kenyans feeling neglected despite the administration’s ambitious global commitments.
: Analyse President William Ruto’s leadership in Kenya, focusing on economic reforms, political strategies, and social challenges shaping the nation’s future.
Kenya’s President William Ruto, in office since September 2022, has faced mixed reviews regarding his leadership, particularly on economic, political, and social fronts.
Bold reforms, mounting challenges, and a mixed reception among citizens have marked his administration.
Economic Landscape
Ruto inherited an economy grappling with high debt levels ($69 billion), inflation, and global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war.
Despite efforts to stabilise the economy, including introducing new taxes and eliminating fuel subsidies to secure loans from the IMF and World Bank, these measures have strained ordinary Kenyans.
Household essentials, including sugar and beans, saw price hikes up to 61% and 30%, respectively. Inflation moderated to 6.7% in August 2023, but economic growth is projected to be slower than the 4.8% recorded in 2022
.Key initiatives such as the “Hustler Fund,” aimed at empowering small-scale entrepreneurs, have not delivered the expected outcomes, with some analysts like Ken Gichinga calling Ruto’s economic policies “ineffective.”
However, Ruto has also promoted local manufacturing and reduced reliance on imports to support job creation.
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Political Strategy
On the political front, Ruto has shown determination to fight corruption.
His administration has introduced measures to track government spending and eliminate payroll fraud through a Unified Personal Identification system.
He has also emphasised accountability, stating, “We shall levy a surcharge against any officer who causes a loss of public resources.” However, critics question the effectiveness of these reforms, especially in light of continued economic hardships
Ruto’s administration faced opposition-led protests over rising living costs, which turned deadly, leaving 50 people dead.
These tensions underscore the political divisions and challenges in delivering tangible benefits to Kenyans
.Social Impact
Socially, Ruto’s policies have had polarising effects. While he champions global issues like climate change, hosting a major summit that attracted billions in clean energy investments, critics argue that his focus on international engagements has left domestic issues, such as food insecurity and unemployment, unresolved.
Analysts like Nerima Wako-Ojiwa emphasise that many Kenyans are now struggling with basic needs like food, highlighting a disconnect between the administration’s priorities and grassroots realities
.Broader Context and Future
Ruto has positioned himself as a reformer, focusing on transparency and economic restructuring.
However, his administration faces the twin challenge of delivering immediate relief to struggling Kenyans while maintaining long-term fiscal responsibility.
Supporters like Joseph Mwiti argue that transformative policies take time to bear fruit, reflecting cautious optimism about Ruto’s leadership.
In sum, President Ruto’s tenure has been characterised by ambitious reforms and significant headwinds. The success of his administration will depend on balancing economic recovery, political stability, and social equity in the coming years.
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