Explainer: Why Kenya is Considered a High Climate Risk for Development Bank

NAIROBI, Aug 07 (IPS) – Climate change-related extreme weather jeopardizes Kenya’s development agenda; even though it contributes very little to global warming, it is marked as a high-risk country by development banks.Kenya contributes less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions every year, yet development banks have flagged the East African nation as a high climate risk. This is due to extreme weather changes that are increasingly threatening the country’s development agenda, widening socio-economic inequalities, and deepening rural poverty and hunger.

Climate change is a long-term shift in temperatures and weather patterns. Climate risk is the potential harm caused by climate change, such as financial, social, and environmental destruction and loss of life. Country-specific climate risk profiles are a summary of an analysis of climate trends over a long period of time, revealing how variability in weather patterns affects life and livelihoods.

Countries are advised to use these profiles to inform their development agenda, as failure to do so can significantly derail achievement of set development goals. For instance, unpredictability in weather patterns has a negative impact on certain sectors of Kenya’s economy.

This includes agriculture, tourism, horticulture, livestock and pastoralism, and forest products. Nearly 98 percent of agriculture is rain fed. Using climate risk projections, the country can invest in irrigation to reduce the impact of climate change on the sector, as approximately 75 percent of Kenyans draw their livelihood from agriculture.

Kenya’s most recent climate risk profile provides a climatic trend summary spanning two decades from 1991 to 2020, revealing that an estimated 68 percent of natural disasters in Kenya are caused by extreme climatic events, mostly floods and droughts. The remaining 32 percent represents disease epidemic.

High Temperatures Causing Frequent, Intense Droughts

Overall, 16 drought events are on record from 1991 to 2020, affecting millions of people and causing an overall estimated damage of USD 1.5 billion. Despite floods being a more recent phenomenon in Kenya they are becoming increasingly frequent, resulting in 45 flood events within the same period. While a pattern of droughts began to emerge as far back as 1975, a pattern of floods has only begun to emerge from 2012 to 2020.

A repeating pattern of droughts and floods costs the country approximately 3 to 5 percent of its annual Gross Domestic Product. Over the past two decades, Kenya’s mean annual temperature was 24.2 degree Celsius—with a high of 30.3 degree Celsius and a low of 18.3 degree Celsius.

To give a perspective of average temperatures in Kenya, 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 is following the trend. According to the Gilbert Ouma Associate Professor, Meteorology, University of Nairobi writing in The Conversation the capital Nairobi average temperatures fare normally moderate, between 24°C and 25°C on the higher side and 17°C-18°C on the lower side.

“These are generally very comfortable temperatures. However, in the December-January-February period, maximum temperatures are normally high, ranging between 26°C and 27°C.

“This year, temperatures in February went up to between 29°C and 30°C, even hitting 31°C. This is about 6°C higher than normal Nairobi temperatures. That is a big difference and our bodies are bound to feel the difference. If such an increase is sustained for a long time, it can lead to a heat wave.”

Droughts have been a most pressing and persistent problem in Kenya. As far back as 1975, drought cycles used to occur every 10 years. But as climate change escalates in both frequency and intensity, the drought cycle reduced from every 10 years to every five years, to every two to three years.

Each year there is an annual dry spell and a food shortage and the regularity of extremely dry periods makes it difficult for the country to recover from one drought to the next.

A History of Drought Cycles in Kenya From 1991 to 2020

Drought is a regular occurrence in Kenya. In 1991–1992, more than 1.5 million people were affected by drought. This was followed by another cycle of widespread drought in 1995–1996 that affected at least 1.4 million people.

In January 1997, the government declared drought a national disaster, affecting more than two million people, and the famine continued into 1998. Shortly after, in 1999–2000, an estimated 4.4 million people were in dire need of food aid due to a severe famine. As far as natural disasters go, this was declared the worst in the preceding 37 years.

The 1998–2000 drought cost the country an estimated USD 2.8 billion, and this was largely due to crops and livestock loss, forest fires, damage to fisheries, reduced hydropower generation, reduced industrial production and reduced water supplies.

In 2004, failure of the March to June long rains led to a severe drought that left more than three million Kenyans in need of urgent food aid. In December 2005, the government declared drought a national catastrophe, affecting at least 2.5 million people in northern Kenya alone.

The drought in 2008 affected 1.4 million people and an overall 10 million people were at risk of hunger after an unsuccessful harvest due to drought in late 2009 and into early 2010. The severe and prolonged drought caused the country USD 12.1 billion in damages and losses, and cost over USD 1.7 billion in recovery.

There are 47 counties in Kenya. As only 20 percent of Kenya receives high and regular rainfall, Kenya’s arid and semi-arid (ASAL) areas comprise 18 to 20 of the poorest counties, which are particularly at risk from increased aridity and periods of drought.

ASAL regions have endured three significantly severe droughts from 2010 to 2020. The 2010–2011 period was severe and prolonged, affecting at least 3.7 million people, causing USD 12.1 billion in damages and losses, and costing over USD 1.7 billion in recovery and reconstruction needs.

That cycle was followed by the 2016–2017 drought. The 2020–2022 famine, which was the most severe, longest and widespread as more than 4.2 million people, or 24 percent of the ASAL population were facing high levels of acute food insecurity.

Overview of Natural Disaster Events in Kenya, 1991–2020

Kenya is increasingly enduring periods of intense, heavy rainfall. During this period, there were a total of 45 flood events, directly affecting more than 2.5 million people and causing an estimated damage of USD 137 million.  These events took place in 1997, 1998, 2002, 2012 and 2020, as they were short, frequent and intense.

Unlike drought and famine, Kenya’s history with floods is much shorter. There were many consecutive drought seasons from 1991 to 1997. From 1997, a pattern of floods begun to emerge in this East African country.

It all started with the historic severe and deadly El Nino floods in 1997–1998 that were widespread and affected 1.5 million people. This was followed by the 2002 floods, that affected 150,000 people. Kenya has experienced flooding almost every year from 2010 to 2020.

Projected Risk Moving Forward

“From 2020 to 2050, projections show that ASAL regions will continue to receive decreasing rainfall. Temperatures in the country will continue to rise by 1.7 degree Celsius by 2050 and even higher by approximately 3.5 degree Celsius before the end of this century. The escalation in climate change will increase our climate risk,” Mildred Nthiga, a climate change independent researcher in East Africa, tells IPS.

“We will have even more frequent and damaging floods, and this will be followed by longer periods of drought. We have already started to experience some worrisome landslides and mudslides and, this will become an even bigger concern, especially in the highlands.”

Stressing that additional soil erosion and water logging of crops will significantly affect agricultural productivity, reducing yields and increasing food security. There will also be significant economic losses, severe damage to farmlands and infrastructure.

Worse still, as already witnessed in the recent 2024 deadly floods—human causalities. This will deepen rural poverty and hunger, and derail Kenya’s progress towards achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Note: This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

IPS UN Bureau Report