Kalonzo Musyoka’s 2027 Presidential Ambitions: A Political Gamble or a Real Shot?

Can Kalonzo Musyoka Win the 2027 Presidency? Exploring His Political Strategy, Mt. Kenya Courtship, and Potential Running Mate Choices.

Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, aged 70, has been a mainstay in Kenya’s political arena for decades, always positioned near the apex of power but never quite clinching the highest office. With the 2027 presidential race already casting long shadows, Kalonzo is gearing up for what could be his final serious bid for the presidency. However, his chances of winning are clouded by a mix of political advantages, enduring shortcomings, and the shifting dynamics of Kenya’s electoral map, particularly in the pivotal Mt. Kenya region.

Kalonzo’s Political Legacy and Persona

Kalonzo Musyoka is often viewed as a seasoned statesman, having built a career marked by calculated caution, consensus-building, and moderation. He is respected for his diplomatic prowess, serving as Kenya’s Vice President under President Mwai Kibaki and holding high-level positions in regional peace efforts, particularly in South Sudan and Somalia. He has cultivated an image as a gentleman politician, priding himself on his clean record, something that could work in his favor against competitors with more baggage.

Politically, Kalonzo has long been the kingpin of Kenya’s Eastern region, particularly in Ukambani. He leads the Wiper Democratic Movement, a significant political force in Kenyan elections. However, his tendency to act as a coalition player—often being a kingmaker rather than the king—has led to perceptions that he lacks the assertiveness and fire required for the presidency. His supporters, nonetheless, see him as the right candidate to heal divisions in a polarized nation and project stability and diplomacy on the global stage.

Political Shortcomings

While Kalonzo’s reputation as a statesman is solid, his political style has several shortcomings that could hinder his path to State House:

1. Perceived Indecisiveness: Over the years, Kalonzo has been criticized for being politically cautious, which some interpret as indecisiveness. His hesitation to break from political alliances, particularly his long-standing allegiance to Raila Odinga, has created the perception that he is not bold enough to chart his own independent course.
2. Lack of Nationwide Appeal: Despite his dominance in the Ukambani region, Kalonzo has struggled to build a truly national appeal. His influence outside his traditional stronghold is limited, and he has yet to demonstrate an ability to excite voters across the country.
3. History of Coalition Politics: Kalonzo’s role in multiple political coalitions, including his significant partnership with Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja in 2022, has often placed him in a secondary position, with critics labeling him a perpetual “number two” in presidential races. Breaking free from this image will be a challenge.

Courting the Mt. Kenya Vote: A Game-Changer?

Lately, Kalonzo has turned his attention to the politically powerful Mt. Kenya region. In 2022, the region nearly voted in unison for President William Ruto, but political cracks are starting to show. Ruto’s fallout with several Mt. Kenya leaders, coupled with dissatisfaction in some quarters about his governance style and promises, has left the region open for new suitors.

Kalonzo’s recent overtures to Mt. Kenya could be a smart move, but the region is notoriously difficult to capture without a clear and compelling message. Traditionally, Mt. Kenya voters have been strategic, seeking alliances with candidates who seem capable of winning and who promise to protect their economic interests. Kalonzo must work to shake off perceptions that he is a perennial coalition player with limited influence if he is to convince Mt. Kenya voters that he is a viable alternative to Ruto. He will also need a running mate from the region to bolster his chances.

Can Mt. Kenya Votes Translate into Victory?

While Kalonzo’s courting of the Mt. Kenya bloc is a step in the right direction, it’s too early to tell if it will translate into votes. The region is known for pragmatic voting patterns, and while some dissatisfaction with Ruto may exist, Kalonzo must build a strong narrative of how he will address Mt. Kenya’s economic and social concerns. He would also need to exploit any emerging divisions within the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) that could weaken Ruto’s stranglehold on the vote-rich bloc.

The success of Kalonzo’s Mt. Kenya strategy will likely depend on his ability to:

• Convince Mt. Kenya leaders and the electorate that he is a credible candidate who can deliver on their priorities, from economic stability to infrastructure development.
• Choose a running mate from the region, someone with deep roots and influence, to solidify his support base.

Who Will Be His Running Mate?

The choice of a running mate is critical to Kalonzo’s chances, especially in a polarized political landscape where ethnic alliances play a key role. For Kalonzo, a running mate from the populous and politically influential Mt. Kenya region seems almost inevitable. Some potential figures include:

1. Peter Kenneth: A former Gatanga MP, Kenneth is a respected leader with a clean record and considerable clout in Mt. Kenya. He was a key figure in Raila Odinga’s 2022 campaign and could lend credibility and appeal to Kalonzo’s bid.
2. Martha Karua: Karua, who was Raila Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 elections, remains a strong force in Mt. Kenya politics. However, her recent loss might hinder her appeal, and Kalonzo might prefer to pick a fresh face with broader regional appeal.
3. Justin Muturi: As the current Attorney General and a former Speaker of the National Assembly, Muturi has deep ties within the Mt. Kenya political class. He could help Kalonzo shore up critical support in the region.

Whoever Kalonzo picks must have deep political capital within Mt. Kenya, as the region will be critical in determining whether he stands a real chance of clinching the presidency.

The Path to 2027: Can Kalonzo Win?

Kalonzo’s path to the presidency in 2027 is fraught with challenges but not impossible. He will need to address his political shortcomings, including his perceived indecisiveness and the limited appeal beyond Ukambani, while building a broader coalition that cuts across ethnic and regional lines. His courtship of Mt. Kenya, while a smart move, must be carefully executed to ensure it translates into actual votes.

Additionally, the political landscape in Kenya can shift dramatically in the years leading to the election, and Kalonzo’s ability to capitalize on these shifts—whether by exploiting cracks in Ruto’s support or forging new alliances—will be critical.

In the end, Kalonzo must project himself not just as a seasoned politician but as a transformative leader capable of uniting the country, addressing key economic issues, and safeguarding Kenya’s democracy. If he can do that, and if he can successfully woo Mt. Kenya and other key regions, he may yet stand a chance to fulfill his long-standing ambition of becoming Kenya’s fifth president.