Ruto-ODM Alliance: Impact on Luo Nyanza and Kenya’s Future

:Ruto’s Strategic ODM Alliance: What Luo-Kalenjin Unity and Gachagua’s Impeachment Could Mean for Kenya’s 2027 Elections

By Charles Wachira

In a move that sent shockwaves through Kenya’s political landscape, on July 24, 2024, President William Ruto nominated four senior-ranking members of the opposition ODM party into his new broad-based government. This decision, unprecedented in recent history, raised questions about its impact on the ODM political base in Luo Nyanza and the broader implications for Kenya’s political future, particularly considering Ruto’s pledge to nominate a female deputy president and the brewing tensions with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The history between Ruto and Raila Odinga, leader of the ODM party, is a long and complex one. The two men, who had once been political allies, found themselves on opposite sides during the 2022 general elections. Ruto, a formidable opponent of Raila, ran against him on a populist platform that promised economic transformation under the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. Raila, backed by the then-incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta, represented the Azimio la Umoja coalition, advocating for continuity in governance and reforms aimed at social inclusion.

The Ruto-Raila Political History: From Allies to Rivals

William Ruto’s relationship with Raila Odinga goes back to 2007 when both were part of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Ruto, a key player in ODM, supported Raila’s presidential bid in the highly contested 2007 elections. Although Raila did not win, the political partnership marked a high point for Ruto’s career, solidifying his influence in Rift Valley politics.

However, the alliance began to crack after the 2010 constitutional referendum, when Ruto broke away from Raila over disagreements regarding the new constitution’s provisions. The split widened, and by 2013, Ruto had formed an alliance with Uhuru Kenyatta, effectively leaving Raila’s political camp. This partnership with Kenyatta paved the way for Ruto to become Kenya’s deputy president. Raila, on the other hand, remained a key opposition figure, criticizing the government’s policies and vying for the presidency in the 2013 and 2017 elections.

The 2022 election further deepened the rivalry between the two. Raila was favored by Kenyatta, while Ruto, now running independently, positioned himself as the “hustlers’ candidate,” championing the cause of ordinary Kenyans. Ruto’s victory in the 2022 polls, despite Raila’s strong challenge, solidified his political base but also intensified the animosity between the two camps.

The ODM Move: What’s in it for Luo Nyanza?

The decision to incorporate ODM leaders into the Ruto administration represents a political gamble for both sides. For Ruto, the move appears to be a calculated attempt to co-opt opposition forces, thereby reducing the pressure from Raila’s ODM, which commands significant support in Luo Nyanza. By including opposition figures in his government, Ruto not only blurs the lines between the ruling party and opposition but also fractures the opposition’s ability to mount a cohesive challenge in future elections.

For ODM, agreeing to join the Kenya Kwanza administration is an equally strategic move, likely driven by pragmatism. Raila Odinga, despite losing the 2022 elections, continues to be a towering figure in Luo Nyanza politics. However, the opposition has found itself increasingly sidelined, with limited influence over national policy. By allowing some of his party members to be incorporated into Ruto’s government, Raila likely aims to maintain a foothold in national politics and secure resources and influence for his region.

Luo Nyanza has long been the bedrock of opposition politics, and ODM’s move risks alienating its core supporters. However, Raila may be betting that the benefits of being part of the government, in terms of regional development and political influence, outweigh the potential backlash from his traditional support base. The integration of ODM into the Kenya Kwanza government also weakens any potential opposition unity that could challenge Ruto in 2027.

Ruto’s Broader Strategy: Is Gachagua’s Future in Doubt?

The inclusion of ODM members into the government cannot be viewed in isolation. It comes at a time when President Ruto’s relationship with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has been under increasing strain. Gachagua, a key player in securing the Mt. Kenya vote for Ruto in 2022, has been a vocal and controversial figure, often clashing with other members of the Kenya Kwanza coalition and causing friction within the administration.

On March 7, 2024, Ruto made a significant pronouncement, pledging that his party would have a female deputy president in the near future. This declaration was widely interpreted as a signal that Gachagua’s days as deputy president may be numbered. The timing of this announcement, combined with the inclusion of ODM figures, has led to speculation that Ruto is quietly positioning himself for a future without Gachagua.

With the impeachment motion against Gachagua looming, led by MPs such as Mwengi Mutuse, Ruto’s recent moves could be seen as laying the groundwork for the deputy president’s removal. By building a broader coalition that includes ODM members, Ruto may be seeking to secure enough parliamentary support to push through Gachagua’s impeachment and install a new deputy—perhaps a female leader as he promised.

The Prospects of a Luo-Kalenjin Alliance

One of the most intriguing questions emerging from this political realignment is whether a Luo-Kalenjin alliance, facilitated by Ruto and Raila, could secure Ruto’s presidency in the 2027 elections. Historically, the two communities have been on opposite sides of Kenya’s political divide, but a rapprochement between Ruto and Raila could create a powerful electoral bloc.

Ruto’s Rift Valley base remains solid, and Raila’s influence in Luo Nyanza, despite the incorporation of ODM members into the government, is still formidable. A political alliance between the two could bring together these key voting blocs, creating a formidable force in Kenyan politics. However, such an alliance would come with significant risks. Ruto’s traditional supporters in Mt. Kenya, already uneasy about Gachagua’s sidelining, may view a partnership with Raila with suspicion, potentially fracturing the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

Broader Implications for Kenya’s Political Future

The alliance between Ruto and ODM members reflects the fluidity and pragmatism of Kenyan politics, where alliances shift quickly based on political necessity. For Ruto, the move offers a way to consolidate power, weaken the opposition, and prepare for future leadership battles, including the potential removal of Gachagua.

However, the broader implications of this alliance go beyond the immediate political calculations. By incorporating opposition members, Ruto is setting a precedent for a more inclusive, albeit politically complex, style of governance. This could reshape Kenya’s political landscape, moving away from the traditional adversarial relationship between government and opposition and toward a more collaborative, though fragile, arrangement.

Yet, the risks remain high. If the alliance fails to deliver tangible benefits for Luo Nyanza, Raila’s base could revolt, leaving ODM in a weakened position. For Ruto, the gamble lies in whether he can balance the competing interests of his coalition while preparing for the future—one that may include a new deputy president and a shifting alliance with the opposition.

As the political drama unfolds, one thing is clear: the next few years will be critical in determining the future of Kenya’s leadership. Whether through reconciliation or rupture, the Ruto-Gachagua alliance, coupled with the inclusion of ODM figures, will play a decisive role in shaping the country’s political trajectory leading up to the 2027 elections.

Keywords:Ruto-Gachagua alliance:ODM inclusion 2024:Luo-Kalenjin political alliance:Deputy president impeachment:Kenya 2027 elections