The Ruto-Gachagua Relationship: A Power Struggle, ODM Integration, and the Path to Impeachment.

: The intricate relationship between President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, their shared journey to the presidency in 2022, and the controversies that have emerged, including the involvement of ODM members in the Ruto administration and the implications for Gachagua’s potential impeachment.
By Charles Wachira

The political alliance between President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, once hailed as a formidable partnership that reshaped Kenyan politics, is now on the verge of collapse.

 Their journey from allies to adversaries mirrors the complexities of Kenya’s political landscape.

 The growing rift between them has been fueled by internal power struggles, policy disagreements, and the recent integration of members of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party into the Ruto administration.

 This move, combined with Ruto’s recent pledge to have a female deputy president in the near future, has raised questions about Gachagua’s political future and hints at a calculated effort to pave the way for his potential impeachment.

This analysis delves into the origins of Ruto and Gachagua’s partnership, their shared interests, their victory in the 2022 presidential election, and the controversies that have led to their falling out.

 We also explore the role of ODM’s inclusion in the government and the implications of Ruto’s promise to elevate a female deputy president in light of the impeachment motion against Gachagua.

Ruto and Gachagua: A Strategic Alliance

William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua’s paths first crossed in Kenya’s political circles during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Ruto, a rising star in Daniel arap Moi’s government, and Gachagua, an influential figure within the government administration, shared common political goals.

 They both opposed the dominance of Raila Odinga’s opposition and worked toward securing influence within their respective communities—Ruto from the Kalenjin community and Gachagua from the Kikuyu heartland. Their partnership was not based on friendship but on pragmatic political calculation. Together, they recognized the potential of uniting their support bases to create a formidable political force.

The 2022 Presidential Victory: A Tactical Success

In the lead-up to the 2022 general election, Ruto and Gachagua formed the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, a coalition that promised to deliver economic reforms through the “bottom-up” economic model.

 Their campaign successfully mobilized Kenya’s rural and lower-income voters, with Gachagua serving as the key figure in securing the Kikuyu vote, while Ruto appealed to the broader “hustler” narrative that resonated with millions of Kenyans.

The pair won a hard-fought victory against Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja coalition, capitalizing on growing discontent with the status quo and frustrations with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration.

 However, this victory masked the underlying tensions that would later surface in their working relationship.

Rising Tensions: Policy Disagreements and the Finance Bill 2024

Despite their electoral success, tensions between Ruto and Gachagua began to surface shortly after they took office. A key point of contention was the distribution of power within the government.

 Gachagua expected to wield significant influence over regional appointments and key policy decisions, particularly in the Mt. Kenya region, but Ruto’s approach to consolidating power did not sit well with his deputy.

The passage of the Finance Bill 2024 became a flashpoint. The bill introduced controversial tax hikes that disproportionately affected ordinary Kenyans, and while Gachagua staunchly supported the bill, Ruto distanced himself from its more unpopular provisions.

 Gachagua’s alignment with the bill further eroded his public image and made him a target of criticism, especially among the very voters who had propelled Kenya Kwanza to victory.

ODM Integration into the Ruto Administration: A Calculated Political Move?

In mid-2023, President Ruto made the unexpected decision to bring members of the ODM opposition party into his government.

 Initially seen as a gesture of unity, the move has since been interpreted as a strategic maneuver to shore up his parliamentary numbers and weaken Gachagua’s influence within the government.

By offering key positions to opposition figures, Ruto created a broader coalition that diluted Gachagua’s power and influence.

 The most significant interpretation of this move, however, is its potential connection to a brewing impeachment motion against Gachagua. Mwengi Mutuse, an MP who was once a Gachagua ally, spearheaded the motion, citing gross misconduct and allegations of corruption.

 Without sufficient parliamentary backing, the motion would have little chance of success, but with ODM members now aligned with Ruto’s administration, the president may have quietly amassed the numbers necessary to oust his deputy.

Ruto’s Pledge for a Female Deputy President: Signaling a Shift?

On March 7, 2024, President William Ruto made a pronouncement that added further fuel to the fire of speculation surrounding Gachagua’s future. Ruto pledged to ensure that his party would have a female deputy president in the near future, a statement that was widely viewed as a signal that Gachagua’s time in office may be nearing its end. 

This pledge came at a time when the rift between the two leaders was becoming increasingly public, and it hinted at Ruto’s possible plans to reshape his administration.

The timing of Ruto’s announcement cannot be overlooked. Coming just as the impeachment motion against Gachagua gained traction, the promise of a female deputy president appears to serve multiple purposes.

 On one hand, it positions Ruto as a progressive leader committed to gender inclusivity, while on the other, it subtly sets the stage for Gachagua’s potential removal from office. Should Gachagua be impeached or forced to step down, Ruto’s promise would allow him to fill the vacancy with a politically advantageous candidate, possibly someone who could consolidate his control and appeal to a broader electorate.

The Impeachment Motion: An Open Secret

By early 2024, whispers of Gachagua’s impending impeachment had grown louder. The motion, led by Mutuse, accused Gachagua of misconduct, including corruption and overstepping his constitutional role. 

Despite Gachagua’s continued support among some Kikuyu leaders, his national standing had weakened significantly due to his controversial policies and abrasive leadership style.

Ruto’s integration of ODM members into the government was seen by political observers as a means to secure the parliamentary majority required for such an impeachment to succeed. 

If successful, Ruto would not only rid himself of a troublesome deputy but would also have the opportunity to realign his administration to better suit his long-term political goals.

The Way Forward: Reconciliation or Rupture?

As tensions continue to escalate, the future of the Ruto-Gachagua partnership remains uncertain. The impeachment motion represents a defining moment for both leaders. For Ruto, ousting Gachagua could strengthen his grip on power and allow him to refocus his administration’s agenda without the constant friction from his deputy.

 However, such a move risks alienating the Mt. Kenya region, a crucial voting bloc, and could fracture the Kenya Kwanza coalition.

For Gachagua, the impeachment battle may be his last stand. If he can rally enough support within his community and Parliament, he may survive the motion and regain some of the influence he has lost.

 However, if Ruto’s parliamentary maneuvers succeed, Gachagua’s political career could come to an abrupt and ignominious end.

In the meantime, Ruto’s promise of a female deputy president hangs over the political landscape like a sword of Damocles, signaling that change is on the horizon. Whether this change comes through reconciliation or a complete rupture in the Ruto-Gachagua alliance will determine the future course of Kenya’s political leadership. 

The integration of ODM members, the impeachment motion, and the promise of a new deputy president all point to a pivotal moment in Kenyan politics, one that will have long-lasting repercussions for both the country and its leaders.

Keywords:Ruto-Gachagua rift:ODM integration in government:Deputy President impeachment Kenya:2022 Kenya election victory:Female deputy president Kenya