Politics
Somaliland’s Election: A Key Moment for Democracy & Independence
The election sees President Muse Bihi Abdi’s ruling Kulmiye party facing Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi’s opposition Waddani party. Kulmiye touts milestones in Somaliland’s recognition efforts, including ties with Taiwan, while Waddani aims to expand diplomacy across Africa and the Global South. Waddani’s coalition with the KAAH association signals a focus on regional inclusion, especially in Somaliland’s eastern areas affected by unrest.
: Explore Somaliland’s 2024 election and its impact on democracy, regional stability, and the push for global recognition as an independent state.
Election Context and Significance
Somaliland is set to hold a presidential election on November 13, 2024, an event with substantial implications. The election’s results will shape Somaliland’s democratic credibility and impact its longstanding push for formal recognition as an independent state. Thirty-three years after declaring independence from the Somali Union, Somaliland remains unrecognised, struggling with limited access to global financing and aid, which must often come via Mogadishu.
Pursuit of Recognition
Somaliland’s determination for independence was underscored in January 2024 when it reached an agreement with Ethiopia, proposing Ethiopia’s access to the sea in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. This pending agreement stirred regional responses, including protests from Somalia, highlighting the sensitivities around Somaliland’s political status.
Political Landscape: Kulmiye vs. Waddani
The election pits the ruling Kulmiye party, led by President Muse Bihi Abdi, against the opposition party, Waddani, led by Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi. While Kulmiye has championed milestones in Somaliland’s push for recognition, such as building diplomatic ties with Taiwan and lobbying Western states, Waddani is likely to broaden diplomatic efforts toward African and Global South nations. A recent coalition between Waddani and the KAAH association highlights its focus on regional inclusion, particularly in Somaliland’s eastern regions that have faced unrest.
Regional Implications
A peaceful election would bolster Somaliland’s image as a stable democratic entity and strengthen its case for independence. However, Somaliland’s independence push could escalate regional tensions, as Ethiopia and Somaliland grow wary of Somalia’s alliance with Egypt. While a military confrontation with Mogadishu is unlikely, Somaliland remains sensitive to Somalia’s “one Somalia” policy, which has global backing.
Risks of Instability
Despite the election’s importance, risks persist. The dominance of the Isaaq clan in politics and economics could exacerbate grievances among minority clans, even as Waddani promises greater inclusivity. Additionally, tensions among Isaaq loyalists and potential accusations of electoral fraud could lead to unrest. After the violent postponement of elections in 2022, transparency and clan reconciliation will be essential to maintaining stability.
A Step Forward for Somaliland
While risks remain, Somaliland’s return to the polls is a positive step for its democratic journey and quest for international recognition. Regardless of the election’s outcome, the event signals continued resilience in Somaliland’s push for independence.