Ethiopia Eyes December Debt Restructuring After IMF Review

: Ethiopia’s December IMF review may unlock long-awaited debt restructuring,
crucial for economic reforms and stalled projects like the Koysha Hydroelectric
Dam.

Ethiopia’s much-anticipated debt restructuring prospects could gain clarity this
December, as the country awaits the second review under its four-year International
Monetary Fund (IMF) program.

The Extended Credit Facility (ECF), launched in August 2023, remains central to
Ethiopia’s economic reform and debt relief efforts.

Progress Toward Debt Treatment

Last week, Ethiopian authorities reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF tied to the
second review. A comprehensive report on this review is set for release in December, a month many stakeholders, including the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), view as pivotal for
advancing debt treatment plans.

“Debt restructuring stands at the centre of our reform agenda. With the report’s release,
we expect rescheduling talks to gain momentum,” said Habtamu Workneh, Director of
External Economic Analysis & International Relations at the NBE.

He added that discussions are focusing primarily on extending maturity dates for Ethiopia’s debts.

IMF Support and Engagements with Creditors

The IMF has provided Ethiopia with USD 2.5 billion under its current fiscal program,
offering critical support to the country’s macroeconomic stabilisation efforts.
In parallel, Ethiopian authorities have engaged with Eurobond holders and the Official
Creditors Committee (OCC).

A debt restructuring proposal was submitted to Eurobond holders in July 2024, following
key discussions in December 2023 and May 2024.

Additionally, a global investor update held on October 1, 2024, highlighted the nation’s
ongoing economic challenges and progress in creditor negotiations.

Shifting Debt Landscape

The government has reported improvements in its debt profile. Planning and Development Minister Fitsum Assefa (PhD) announced that Ethiopia had ceased relying on commercial loans and direct borrowing from the central bank.

She noted a significant drop in the external debt-to-GDP ratio to 13.7 per cent, though
the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis, published in July 2024, pegged the ratio at 18
per cent as of June 2023.

External debt accounts for 45 per cent of Ethiopia’s total public and publicly guaranteed
debt, the report stated.

Financing Challenges Persist

Despite these reforms, Ethiopia’s financing challenges remain acute.
The government is seeking nearly USD 1 billion to complete the Koysha Hydroelectric
Dam project, which has stalled at two-thirds completion due to funding shortfalls.

The project is a critical component of Ethiopia’s development strategy, but its delays
underscore the broader fiscal pressures the country faces.

Expert Views on Economic Outlook

While Ethiopian officials are optimistic about the December review as a turning point,
analysts caution that real progress hinges on creditor consensus and the government’s
ability to implement reforms.

Critics have also raised concerns about inflated GDP growth figures, which they argue
may distort Ethiopia’s true debt sustainability.

Looking Ahead

The IMF review, coupled with Ethiopia’s active engagement with creditors, could mark a
a significant step forward in its quest for debt relief.

December will likely be a defining month for the country’s economic future, with broader
implications for its ability to attract investment and complete critical infrastructure
projects.